The UN avoided war earlier in February after negotiating an agreement regarding the inspection of Iraqi presidential sites. Now the Iraqis have told the UN Security Council they have a limited time to respond to its threat of "grave consequences" if sanctions, imposed in 1990, are not lifted.

Jim Kent, advisor to the model UN club at Marist College, Poughkeepsie, N.Y., said he feels Iraq will continue to play this game because it gets them the response they want.

"When it looks like the inspections will go on, the Iraqis say the sanctions must be lifted," he said. "It is the same dance, and everyone knows it, when Iraq plays the sanction card."

Nikko Zahariadis, assistant professor of political science and international relations at SUNY New Paltz, said he does not think a peaceful resolution will be reached soon.

"The situation will probably get worse," he said. "It’s the same old cat and mouse situation of going back and forth, each wanting different things. The Iraqis want the sanctions lifted and the UN wants them there."

The sanctions were imposed by the UN in 1990 after the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. Under the loosely defined guidelines, Iraq is only to sell a specified amount of oil to certain people. Kent said he feels when Saddam feels threatened by the UN inspections, he refuses to allow them to continue until the sanctions are lifted.

According to Kent, assistant professor of public administration at Marist College, Saddam will say the sanctions are a humanitarian issue.

"Saddam will say he promises the extra money [from the oil sales] will go to humanitarian causes," he said. "He says the sanctions are hurting his people, but the UN continues to be worried about biological warfare."

Kent said Saddam always says he wants the UN to lift the sanctions and then he will follow the guidelines of it.

"Saddam says if the UN relieves the sanctions, so will the suffering," he said. "Hussein also tells the inspectors that the national sovereignty is being impeded by the inspections."

Zahariadis, assistant professor of political science, said he feels Iraq is serious with their request for lifting the sanctions.

"The Iraq economy is bad and they are sincere in wanting the sanctions lifted," he said. "They are not sincere about the UN inspections. For the US this is more of a game because they have nothing to lose."

Zahariadis said he feels the UN lacks the interest to continue to deal with Iraq militarily.

"We have to see who can push the hardest to get a peaceful resolution," he said. "The UN situation has exhausted their diplomatic options, sending the Secretary General was their last option."

Zahariadis said he feels the UN cannot play the role of peacemaker with Iraq anymore.

"The UN is a collection of member government and they all need to decide on things," he said. "If they don’t all decide, nothing happens."

Zahariadis said he feels the US will continue to work with Iraq.

"It is likely the US will act unilaterally with a limited coalition to strike," he said. "It seems the US wants to strike and going through the UN will not be helpful because they need the authorization of Russia and France, and that is not likely."

"The US made a big deal about Iraq and now they are locked into a more decisive course of action," he said.

Kent, assistant professor of public administration, said he feels there is no obvious end to the dispute with Iraq.

"We have seen this same dance before," he said. "This is the same series of techniques Iraq has used all along. It is clever, and it works."

  Kent said he feels the problem with this political game is the danger of brinkmanship.

  "There is a danger that at some point, someone will call the others bluff and we’ll be at war," he said. "Saddam would start a war to prove he did have biological weapons and to show he could do it."

  Zahariadis said he feels the US will strike when it is the best time to get the most political mileage out of the war.

  "I expect military action in early fall," he said. "It will head-off the elections and give a boost to the Democrats."