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IRELAND, GERMANY PLANS FOR STABILITY : By Janine Szal

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Ireland seeks peace for its future while Germany may be the next European country in need of stabilization.

According to the Irish Times, an online news source, Irish voters are being urged to swallow their nationalist pride and back Northern Ireland’s peace deal in a referendum. At the same time, Germany is beginning the process of applying a stability pact to the individual German states and municipalities in order to stabilize its society and economy.

Adrian McDaid, press officer for the Irish Consulate in New York City, said that the problems of Ireland are being misinterpreted.

McDaid said he doesn’t think that the problems of Ireland are essentially religious, people tend to label the Irish as Catholic and Protestant simply because it makes it easier for them to understand," he said.

"I don’t think the problems are religious in nature, and I don’t think people have difficulties because they are concerned about what you believe about the Doctrine of Trans-substantiation of the Virgin Birth."

McDaid said that the issues are a political and constitutional problem that has

been retarded through violence. He said that in a climate where people can look at their

differences without violence, there is greater opportunity for them to peacefully come together.

"Voilence has been a severe blow to the cross-community contact of these people and has driven them farther apart," McDaid said.

With reference to the economy, McDaid said what we have seen in Ireland in the

last 25 years is that violence has affected most areas of society including tourism,

business, and direct foreign investment.

"Once peace is established and people are willing to come together in a climate of stability, then changes will be seen," he said. "One of the major areas investors are concerned with, both internal and external, is the stability of the country and the risks involved."

McDaid said that tourism is seen in a similar manner. He said that if tourists see and hear violence going on, they will be reluctant to go there for a long time.

"The return of tourism was seen in the immediate aftermath of the first cease-fire," McDaid said. "In that period of time, tourists returned to Northern Ireland in dramatic numbers and as soon as the cease-fire ended, tourism decreased."

William Batkay, associate professor of political science at Montclair State University, Montclair, New Jersey, said that Ireland will continue to develop economically and also continue to liberalize its domestic policies.

"If the new accord is ratified and lasts, all the benefits of people and stability should come to Ireland, north and south," he said. "This might take some time, given the history of instability of Northern Ireland."

Batkay said the evidence he saw reflects that majorities in both Northern Ireland

and the Republic favor the accord and want peace. He said the problem seems to be with some of the extremist leaders of some of the political factions who have made lifetime careers from the struggle and violence.

"These people are quite capable of terrorist attacks that could sabotage the agreement," he said.

Like Ireland, according to the German News, an online source, Germany is preparing negotiations for the creation of a coalition government that would benefit the economy.

According to Reuters, an online source, German Chancellor Helmut Kohl had promoted the Euro and stressed that the monetary union would also advance the political union in Europe. Kohl said the monetary union is the most important decision since the re-unification of the two German states.

Batkay, a comparative politics specialist, said the German people as a whole are skeptical and frightened about giving up their beloved D-Mark, which has been a pillar of stability for Germany and Europe since World War II.

"The Euro seems to be the pet project of some political elites," he said.

Peter Brown, professor of German at the State University of New York at New

Paltz, said that most Germans are opposed to the new Euro currency.

"The latest number I have read was slightly over 60 percent opposed to its introduction," he said. "Nevertheless, it will become a reality since Germany is obligated by treaty to go ahead with the integration of the currency."

According to the German News, the leader of the PDS (Party of Democratic Socialism) group offered to renew the deal in place between the two parties before the election, whereby the PDS would tolerate an SPD (Social Democrat) government.

Brown said that "tolerate" is what a party does when it is not a coalition partner in a government, but it agrees not to vote against the ruling coalition that is not in a majority position.

"My understanding is that the SPD in Thuringia will not make any such deal with the PDS, but may instead try for grand coalition together with the CDU (Christian Democrats)," he said.

Brown said that the real complication comes from the 20 percent unemployment rate in Germany that is the highest anywhere in Eastern Germany. He said that this has caused a feeling of desperation among the voters, sending them to the extreme right and the extreme left.

"The worst case arising from unemployment is economic and political

instability," he said. "The current situation has already resulted in political polarization, as seen in the Thuringia elections, where the neo-Nazi DUV party garnered an unprecedented 12 percent of the vote in a state where unemployment is 20 percent.

Brown said that the former communist party also came in very strong while the

ruling CDU party lost considerably.

"The main consequence of fixed debt ceilings would be to discourage excessive deficit spending, thus keeping the debt to tolerable limits," he said. "But keeping money tight might force rates up and prolong the current economic stagnation and high unemployment."

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