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GLOBAL WARMING THREATENS FOOD SECURITY
By Erica Hoff
Not only does global warming impact our climate, it is predicted to diminish the production of maize, the third most important crop in the world.
A new report published in the journal of Global Environmental Change, said global warming could lead to a 10 percent drop in the production of maize in developing countries over the next 50 years.
Based on the advanced computer model, MarkSim, total annual losses calculated could reach an average of 10 million tons, enough grain to feed 140 million people. This program simulates conditions at different locations from weather stations worldwide.
Maize producing countries such as Brazil, Nigeria, Mexico, South Africa and Tanzania are estimated to lose between 20 and 25 percent of production.
Philip Thornton of the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) in Nairobi, Kenya co-directed this project with geographer Peter Jones at the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), in Cali, Columbia, said that simulations suggest varying patterns within ecosystems.
“Our simulations suggest that rising temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns vary widely from one agro-ecosystem to another,” said Thornton.
Substinence farmers, who grow maize for their families and farm animals, may experience disastrous results from global warming. Poor nations in sub-Saharan Africa find it difficult to cope with drought and the impact on the rural economy.
ILRI and CIAT called the Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), and argued that the best way to alleviate the impact on maize production of the climatic changes is to develop new drought resistant varieties and get them to farmers before it is too late. However, this agricultural research will come at a great cost.
The ongoing emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere has worried scientists about the possible agricultural impact of global warming.
Assessments made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), composed of top atmospheric and climate scientists, estimate that the Earths average surface temperature could rise by 1.5-5.8 degrees Celsius (2.5-10.4 degrees Fahrenheit) over the coming century.
IPCC Chairman Robert Watson also agrees that poor countries in tropical areas are more likely affected by changes in the climate resulting from global warming.
“With its low per capita fossil energy use, Sub-Saharan Africa has the lowest emissions of the greenhouse gases that are the major cause of climate change.” He noted two years ago: “Yet Sub-Saharan Africa- along with low lying small inland states- is the most vulnerable to climate change because widespread poverty limits its capabilities to adapt to a changing climate,” said Watson.
According to the Environmental News Network (ENN), Maize, known as corn in North America, is essential to the diets of hundreds of millions of people around the world. Thus, making it the world’s third most important crop, after rice and wheat. Nearly 50 percent of the world’s maize supply is produced in poor countries, where maize flour is a staple for low-income people and maize stalks provide dry-season feed for farm animals.
The most productive yields of the crop are found in North America and vary widely around the world. In Latin America maize yields currently average slightly more than three tons per hectare; in Africa, the average is only 1.5 tons.
Drought is not the only threat faced by farmers in these areas, according to the IPPC, which has warned that the increased frequency and intensity of tropical storms, flooding, landslides, abnormal seal-level rises, and other extreme weather conditions will also create major challenges to farmers and governments in poor countries.
Eastern and Southern Africa are the main concerns with researchers. These areas have suffered a series of droughts that may be related to global warming. Yields have generally lagged in Africa in part because the “green revolution” has yet to take hold there.
An estimated 170 million Africans currently depend on maize grown in a mixed crop-and-livestock farming system. ILRI director Carlos Sere believes the decrease of maize will have a domino effect.
“Less maize means less grain for poor people, less feed for farm animals, and less milk and meat for hungry households,” said Sere. “In Africa, animals contribute as much as 80 percent of farm cash income and provide draught power, fuel and credit.”