TICKETS TO RIDE  

 







 

  BY DAVID MCKAY WILSON
EMPIRE STATE REPORT
MAY 1998

With the state Democratic convention in Westchester County only weeks away, New York City, Council Speaker Peter Vallone, one of five Democrats running for governor, is busily trying to convince undecided party regulars that he's not just another New York City politician whose vision stops at the citvyline.

Betsy McCaughey Ross, the erstwhile Republican lieutenant governor who was reborn as a Democrat last year, is attempt into persuade delegates that her conversion was sincere and that she's not the fickle loose cannon her former running mate, Gov. George Pataki, has made her out to be.

Betsy McCaughey Ross, the erstwhile Republican lieutenant governor who was reborn as a Democrat last year, is attempt into persuade delegates that her conversion was sincere and that she's not the fickle loose cannon her former running mate, Gov. George Pataki, has made her out to be. Former state Transportation and Energy Commissioner James Larocca, buoyed by his straw poll victory among rural Democrats in Ithaca in March, is continuing his person-to-person campaign with state committee members through the mail and over the telephone. Brooklyn District Attorney Charles Hynes, despite statewide numbers showing crime ebbing is alerting delegates to New York's need for a seasoned crime fighter in the governor's mansion.

Richard Kahan, the former chairman of the state Urban Development Corp., is asking party leaders to consider his experience creating jobs as a chief executive. "If Vallone stumbles as the frontrunner, and [McCaughey Ross] is found to be not acceptable, then I'm the only person uniformly liked, and the), know I have the resources to run the race," Kahan says.

So goes the 1998 "Spring of Optimism" for the handful of Democrats, who, as the May 27-28 convention nears, still believe anything is possible. Pataki, the former Peekskill mayor, meanwhile, is riding popularity ratings of 60 percent in recent polls. But voter registration in the state gives Democrats a 5-to-3 edge.

Their convention, to be held in Rye Brook, promises to showcase hefty doses of political drama, hearty debate, and down-and-dirty Republican bashing. The only uncontested race is for state comptroller, where incumbent H. Carl McCall will be nominated for a second term.

Competitive races for governor, attorney general and lieutenant governor will demand the attention of state committee members. The candidates, by winning 50 percent of the vote, would like to win the convention at the Rye Town Hilton and be the party's nominee, which gives that person a boost in the media and the bragging rights among party insiders

But most would also be content to win 25 percent of the vote on any ballot, enough to put them in the September primary. "It's going to be a very full agenda," says Judith Hope, state Democratic Party chairwoman. "It's a no-nonsense, roll-up-your sleeves, get-the-job-done event. There won't be any laser light show, just the real serious business of nominating." But the coalition that comprises New York's 4.8-million member Democratic Party can be a factious one, and fault lines will be on display. It could get ugly. "The Democrats are about to have a major food fight "says political consultant Jay Townshend of Cornwall-on-Hudson.

Hope believes an open convention the party, as long as the candidates refrain from lashing out at icans. each other instead of at their real enemies, the Republicans. "We've worked on this issue for months," Hope says. "The media has raised the awareness of the folly of negative campaigning. We have to focus on the issues and the failures of Pataki and [U.S. Sen. Alfonse] D'Amato."

After the Democrats lay bare their inner fissures the unified GOP will meet a week later at the New york Sheraton, victory four years ago. Few anticipate any the site of Pataki's chaotic nail biting. Rather, most expect a scene resembling a coronation. And this year, Pataki will share the spotlight with political patron D'Amato, who will be nominated to seek a fourth term.

The party unity that comes with being in power means Republican delegates won't have much to do, except some hearty backslapping and listening one more time to the tale of Pataki's rise from a Peekskill farm boy to the governor's mansion.

It will be a time for the GOP to showcase its statewide stars to the media. Officials will recount how Pataki delivered on his pledges to bring back the death penalty, cut taxes, and, from their perspective, revive the state's economy. They'll talk of how Attorney General Dennis Vacco has made his office a player in the criminal justice field. And they'll remind New Yorkers of all the bacon DAmato has brought home from Washington in the past 18 years.

With their well-choreographed convention coming a week after the Democratic donnybrook, the GOP gathering will draw more than a few comparisons. "I'm sure there will be a contrast-we'll know our ticket and it will come a week after the disarray and disunion of the Democratic convention, says Terry O'Brien, a spokesman for the New York State Republican Committee. "The Republicans have a reason to be happy - we've made tremendous gains."

The only GOP slots on the ticket still open are for lieutenant governor and comptroller. Republican insiders say those positions will be selected by Pataki and top party leaders before the convention, with the pair then presented to delegates for their ratification.

The Republicans may not field a top candidate to oppose McCall, hoping that a weak candidate and a low-key campaign would dampen the intensity of McCall's campaign, especially in the Democratic urban areas where he runs strongest.

The Democratic race for the gubernatorial nomination shapes up as the most compelling drama at the convention, with delegates deciding who, if anyone, wins the party's designation--coming with 50 percent of the delegate vote-and who wins 25 percent of the vote, enough to hand the candidate a place on the September primary ballot. "It's wide open right now, and everybody has a shot," says Marty Mack, executive director of the New York State Democratic Committee. "It's our first really open convention since 1982, when Mario Cuomo and Ed Koch went head-to-head.

"What promises to make this months convention exciting is the fact that many delegates will show up uncommitted to any gubernatorial candidates. Erie County Chairman Steven Pigeon said he is holding back his support for any candidate until the convention begins.

"No one impresses me," Pigeon says. "We're open for governor. I want to see what they do. I want to [hear] who's saying, what and [to see] who does the convention politics right." Traditionally, that translates to the kind of backroom horse-trading that heats the blood of party leaders as they scurry from hotel suite to hotel suite, seeing how they can trade their block of votes in one race for support in another.

Those convention politics also are expected to come into play for the selection of the Democratic candidate for lieutenant governor. Though the party's gubernatorial designee, or gubernatorial candidate snaring 25 percent of the delegate's votes, will have some say in that selection, party leaders will be the final arbiters in the decision over how best to balance the ticket in terms of Tender, race, ethnicity and geography.

Candidates who fail to secure 25 percent of the delegates would need to undertake a petition drive to gather 15,000 signatures from enrolled Democrats to get on the primary ballot. Among those signatures must be 100 Democrats from at least 16 of New York's 31 Congressional districts.

It's a daunting task, which requires either a strong statewide organization or, according to campaign veterans, at least $200,000 to pay canvassers.

In the past, Democrats have made deals to give the 25 percent to 146mate candidates at the convention. But there is a growing sense that may end in 1998. Assemblyman Clarence Norman Jr., who is also chairman of the Kings County Democratic Committee discussed when the leaders of the state's 13 most populous counties met last winter. "I have the feeling the matter will be more restrictive this Year," Norman says' "l can't speak for all the others, but we basically weren't disposed to just giving the 25 percent."

While winning the party's designation can provide a boost to a campaign, history shows it often has been the kiss of death in Democratic primaries. Howard Samuels won the party's designation for governor in 1974, but he lost to Hugh Carey in the primary. Koch won the convention over Cuomo in 1982, but he too lost in September. Geraldine Ferraro won the party designation for U.S. Senate in 1992, but lost to Bob Abrams in the primary

Among the five gubernatorial candidates, it appears that Vallone and Larocca are tightening their grips on 25 percent of convention delegates. So far, the politically moderate City Council speaker has rounded up strong support from Queens, and from committees in Manhattan, the Bronx, Albany, and Westchester. He has the support of the eight-county Mid-Hudson Caucus of Democratic Chairs. "There is a feeling that momentum is swinging to Peter [Vallonel and 50 percent at the convention is something we may achieve on the first ballot," claims Vallone spokesman Peter Ragone.

A first ballot victory by Vallone would end the voting and short-circuit any deal-making to give 25 percent to a candidate on subsequent ballots. Kahan says that would be a disservice to other candidates, who want to fight it out before the Democratic voters in September. Though Kahan says he is prepared to go the petition route, had rather not. "I think the way to find out the strongest candidate in the race would be to have a primary and let the voters' decide," Kahan says."Everybody in this racewith one exception, has earned a place on the ballot."

For Kahan, that exception is McCaughey Ross, who was leading in a recent public opinion poll taken by Quinnipiac College. The poll showed McCaughey Ross with 27 percent, compared to 16 percent for Vallone and Hynes, 3 percent for Larocca and 1 percent for Kahan.

Kahan maintains that McCaughey Ross is a conservative Republican who has no place in the Democratic Party. But McCaughey Ross is the race's best-known candidate. Her husband, investment banker Wilbur Ross, a long-time Democratic Party fund-raiser, is expected to bankroll much of her candidacy. Her campaign also focuses on the problems of "working families": education for young children and access to health care.

McCaughey Ross has surprised many with her growing political support. She has the backing of upstate Assembly members Sam Hoyt, Susan John and Martin Luster, as well as committees in the counties of Tioga, Schenectady, Chautauqua, Oswego and Franklin.

Her prospects of winning 25 percent at the convention are questionable. But McCaughey Ross says she'll go the petition if necessary.

"Of course I would like to earn the support of the party, but I will be on the ballot in September and November, regardless," she says.

For Larocca, the convention will be a forum to build on his victory in March at the Democratic Rural Conference, where 41 of NeNv Yorles least populous counties gathered for a straw poll. He also has strong support in Nassau and Suffolk counties.

Larocca, who lives in Suffolk County and is the only non-New York City resident in the race, hopes to cobble together enough support in the suburbs and from upstate to secure his 25 percent. His modestly financed campaign has a populist's ring, to it, with calls for a more progressive state income tax. He also advocates a 25 percent cut in tuition for students in state universities. Like Kahan, he has never held public elective office. "This is a grassroots effort," says Larocca. "The convention is wide open and no one has a lock. A good competitive convention will be good for the party, plus it will be newsworthy. We aren't like the other party, where the choices are all dictated from the top."

Hynes, who has long sought higher office, lost his bid for the Democratic nomination for attorney general in 1994, comino, in third in the statewide race. Like the other candidates, he has railed against Pataki's economic development programs, which he says have done nothing to jump-start the upstate economy. He's also pointing to his record as a prosecutor and his treatment options in lieu of prison for nonviolent drug offenders.

Hynes travels to the convention with significant support in Brooklyn, Manhattan and some upstate counties. His goal in Westchester is to win 25 percent of the vote, improving, on his showing four years ago, when he won 24.4 percent at the convention and was forced to petition statewide to win a place on the primary ballot.

If Hynes doesn't win 25 percent, he has Jet to decide if he'll resort to petitions. "It's too early to say what we'll do," says Hynes spokesman Nicholas Abadgiani.

The gubernatorial candidates have seen the Quinnipiac poll this spring that gave Pataki a seemingly insurmountable lead of more than 2-to-1 over all the candidates except for McCaughey Ross, who is led by 57 percent to 30 percent. For Larocca, who trailed Pataki 19 percent to 63 percent, the entry poll wasn't a concern. With the spread that big, the Democrats have nowhere to go but up.

When the chase begins, there will be movement," Larocca says. "Those numbers right now are the least of our worries."

As party leaders prepare for their conventions, officials in both parties have their heads up, filled with optimism but also wary that the political road can take some mean turns when they're least expected. " [It] certainly looks like it will be a good year for us, but you have to take it day by day," says Sen. Dale Volker, an Erie County Republican.

For Democrats, it's time for the party to live up to its democratic tradition and have a free-for-all in Rye Brook. Assemblyman Hoyt of Buffalo says the Democrats could find unity in 1998 and surprise the Republicans in November. "Too many people are taking the results for granted already because Pataki's poll results are so good," Hoyt says. "But we could have a very strong ticket this year."