Having won the governorship for the first time in 20 years and having maintained control of the Senate, New York's Republicans are waging an all-out bid for the one state Democratic legislative body left the Assembly. 

On the third floor of the Capitol, just down the hall from each other, are the entrances to the Assembly leaders' offices. Last summer, the titles appearing on their windows read: "Majority Leader" for Democrat Michael Bragman and "Minority Leader" for Republican Clarence Rappleyea. But when Rappleyea left his post to become chairman of the New York Power Authority, his replacement, Thomas Reynolds, had more than just Rappleyea's name scraped off the glass. The new title embossed on the window was that of "Republican Leader."

 That change from a legislative title to a political one has become symbolic of the effort New York's GOP is mounting as its members gear up for the November 1996 Assembly races. Having won the governorship for the first time in 20 years and having maintained control of the Senate by a 36-24 margin (With one vacancy), Republicans are waging an all-out bid for the one state Democratic legislative body left. "A lot of people believe that a [Republican] majority is inevitable," says Assemblyman Christopher Ortloff of Plattsburgh, chairman of the Republican Program Committee. "It's just a question of when."

 Democrats, their party's future hanging in the balance, admit they are girding for a difficult battle this year. State Democratic Party Co-Chairman John Sullivan says his Republican counterpart. William Powers, "has thrown the gauntlet down in the Assembly."

 Powers would not air his strategies for the 1996 campaigns. But Sullivan says that 1996 is for his party, "a time to take a pulse and preach the Gospel....1996 is very much about 1998 on the state level." 

Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver has called for the Democratic Assembly Campaign Committee (DACC) to raise an unprecedented 54 million to $5 million in an effort to match aggressive Republican fund raising efforts, DACC spent a total of $2.1 million in the 1994 races. For the 1996 campaign, DACC already has raised more than $1 million, according to committee Chairwoman Eileen Dugall of Brooklyn.

 Republican leaders will not say how much money they have raised so far. But as of their last filing with the state Board of Elections in July, the Republican Assembly Campaign Committee (RACC) had collected $527,252. For the 1994 races, the committee raised $773,000.

 Along with intense GOP fundraising this year, Democrats will have to contend with Reynolds, who is Erie County Republican Chairman and a more intense minority leader than Rappleyea, says Assemblyman John McEneny, an Albany Democrat. "[Rappleyea] was so much a part of the institution that maybe he had less of a competitive edge," he says. "The level of sophistication of being a successful county leader in an area that large, coupled with his youth and competitiveness, will make Tom Reynolds a force to be reckoned with."

 For Republicans to take the majority, they will have to win 20 seats held by Democrats and re-elect their 56 incumbents. Should they lose any of their current seats, they, of course, would have to win even more Democratic districts. The party's strategy, according to Reynolds and other GOP leaders, is to run a candidate in each of the 150 Assembly district races and marshal the majority of resources in marginal districts. As a rule of thumb, marginal districts for Democrats are considered areas in which Democrats have served one to two terms or in which Democrats were elected despite Republican voter majorities. Democrats who won close races by landing third-party lines and attracting independent voters, along with Democrats who ran unopposed last election, also are considered vulnerable by the GOP.

 Republican leaders say they also hope voters in districts that elected both Pataki and the incumbent Democratic Assembly candidates will like what they have seen from the governor and vote for GOP Assembly candidates in 1996. "It's a zealous goal. It's not an easy task. But it's a realistic goal," Reynolds says.

 They have been unsuccessful in meeting that goal in the past, but the GOP has a number of perks to offer candidates in 1996—many of which can be delivered by the governor, says Gerald Benjamin, of the Rockefeller Institute of Government. With Pataki, there is a greater chance for Republican-sponsored legislation to become law. The governor can collect considerable resources and campaign for candidates during a year in which he is not running. 

Most important, Pataki, together with the Assembly minority, can entice individuals to become candidates by offering them some degree of security – even if they should lose, "The minority; has the advantage of saying, "We have the governorship. If you make this race, we have a job for you if you don't win," Benjamin says. "There are still a number of appointable positions out there."

 The governor will support Republican Assembly campaign efforts "in whatever way he can," says Robert Bulman, a Pataki spokesman. "That includes fundraising and campaigning."

 GOP members say they also hope to take advantage of the Democrats' lack of a political leader, now that they no longer have e a sitting governor available to campaign for them. But Democrats disagree, saying there are three sets of coattails they can ride. On a national level, they have President Bill Clinton. Whether Clinton's coattails turn out to be long or non-existent remains to be seen, however.

 Within the state both Silver and Democratic Comptroller Carl McCall are touted as possible gubernatorial candidates for 1998. They could campaign with and for other Democratic candidates in 1996.

 Benjamin says that Democrats will be too busy fighting to keep what they have to think about adding more seats. But Dugan disagrees, saying that seats now held by John Guerin of Kingston. Joel Miller of Poughkeepsie and Sandra Lee Wirth of West Seneca—all three of whom replaced Democrats in recent years—may be targeted.

 Democrats downplay Pataki-s influence. They say votes cast for him in the 1994 election were anti-Mario Cuomo, not anti-Democrat. They also note that Democratic Assembly candidates could ride President Clinton's coattails if the public grows weary of right-wing politicians like Newt Gingrich and their conservative agendas.

 McEneny says that the presidential election in 1996 will bring thousands of New Yorkers who normally do not vote to the polls. Many of them are students. If Republicans continue talking about decreasing financial aid and raising tuition in the state university system, student voters would likely vote Democratic, he says.

 In preparation for the upcoming state campaigns, Silver called meetings with his conference in December to discuss legislative and election issues. At the first meeting, he gave marginal Democrats a chance to express their concerns and ideas to the senior Assembly leadership in hopes of developing a better working relationship. "The leaders have a tendency to steer the ship, and the marginals wind up getting killed politically if the ship is going in the wrong direction for them," says McEneny, who attended the second meeting with the rest of the conference. "Instead of having a cheerleading party where everyone is in agreement. There was talk that the marginals have to be protected in order to maintain the majority."

 If Republicans make good on their promise to run candidates in every district, William Parment of Chautauqua County could face a difficult race in 1996 even though he is considered one of the more conservative Democrats. In his seventh Assembly term. Parment is only the second Democrat to represent his district since the Civil War. In 1992, he beat challenger James Barney by a 21.8 percent margin. Two years later, he ran unopposed.

 RoAnn Destito of Oneida County is another Democrat considered vulnerable by both her party and the GOP. She won by 1,975 votes against Barbara Klein, who ran on the Republican and Conservative lines in 1992. In 1994—with the number of enrolled Democrats topping that of Republicans by almost 7,000 she again ran a close race against Utica Mayor Louis LaPolla. Destito spent more than $119,000 on the campaign and won 53.8 percent of the votes to LaPolla's 46.2 percent total from the GOP and Conservative lines. "Given the right candidate, 1996 could be a tough race [for Destito]," says Plattsburgh Assemblyman Ortloff. "There are Oneida County Republicans more popular than the mayor and capable of meeting her numbers."

 Paul Tonko, who represents part of the upstate counties of Montgomery and Schenectady, was targeted last February by the state Republican Committee. His constituents, along with others in about a dozen upstate districts, faced a barrage of letters and television, newspaper and radio advertisements urging them to pressure their representative into voting for Pataki's budget proposal. Tonko won his seventh term by a comfortable 67 percent of the votes. But Pataki ran well in Tonko's district, beating Cuomo by more than 14,000 votes and bolstering GOP hopes of pitting a successful candidate against Tonko in 1996.

 Tonko says he will be required to raise more money to get his message out in 1996. ' I hear that they plan to throw $300,000 to $500,000 into the race," he says, adding that he spent some $90,000 in 1994's election. Republican leaders would not say how much money they will spend on a challenger to Tonko, saying it is too early to tell how the race will unfold.

 There are many current Assembly members who come from districts like Parment's, where Democratic representatives are an aberration in a sea of Republican faces. Robert Sweeney is only the second Democrat to hold his Nassau County seat in 118 years. Destito is the third Democrat to serve in her district in 30 years. And Joan Christensen, who represents half of Onondaga County, took her seat from an incumbent who held the district for 14 years.

 In fact, with the exception of the last 21 years, the Assembly majority has belonged to the GOP for much of its history. Republicans held the majority for 29 of the 32 years before the Democrats swept the Assembly in 1974. Also in that time, Republicans held the governor's seat for 28 years and the Senate for 31 years.

 After two decades of Republicans outnumbering Democrats by 25 to 30 seats, the Assembly switched hands in 1965 for the first time since the Great Depression. That year, Democrats exceeded Assembly Republicans by 26 seats and also won the Senate. The impetus for takeover was sparked two years before, when GOP lawmakers resisted Republican Gov. Nelson Rockefeller's budget and delayed its passage.

 Democrats held control of the Assembly by comfortable margins until 1969, when Republicans gained eight seats in a flurry of controversy over tax increases. The number of GOP districts increased sharply after the 1970 census and redistricting, and in 1973, Democrats were outnumbered by 16 seats.

 That all changed with the 1973 election, as the gravity of the Watergate scandal unfolded. Many disenchanted Republicans failed to vote that year, and Democrats reclaimed the 16 seats they had lost. They quickly consolidated their power by redrawing district lines after the 1980 census that virtually guaranteed their domination. Democrats peaked in the Assembly at 97 seats over the GOP's 52 when Mario Cuomo was elected in 1983.

 Republicans say they think the 1996 Assembly election at the very least will lay the groundwork for future takeover. "There is no question in 1994 that the wind was at our back," says RACC Chairman John Faso. The question in 1996 is the perception of the voters, the approval level of the governor, and the popularity of Clinton.

 "We need 20 [seats] for the majority," Faso adds. "That's a very difficult climb in any given year and any political environment. But the Democrats in New York State have really run out of gas." 

That statement may be part of the Republican's campaign message in 1996. Other GOP themes that may materialize, according to Minority Leader Reynolds, are that Republicans are getting state spending under control; they have delivered income tax cuts; they enacted a death penalty vetoed by previous Democratic governors; they are pushing for fewer regulations and mandates; and they are keeping and creating more jobs in New York. "The failed liberal policies of the Assembly have been obstructions to change," he adds. "There is a great opportunity to talk about the Republican accomplishments in state government."

 Democrats say such messages in time could close the window of opportunity to a Republican takeover. Take, for example, the Republican move to slash state spending, says Assemblyman McEneny. "When the state workforce was cut in Albany, most calls of peril to my office came from those workers. The attitude of the private sector was rather cavalier," he says. "After a while, the businesses here began calling me to say that people weren't buying as many cars or getting their hair cut as often.

 "The pendulum of public opinion has swung back [to Democratic principles], but only in Albany because we house the state workers," he says. "By 1998, the rest of the state will feel it too."

 Democratic Assemblyman Ronald Canestrari, whose district includes parts of Albany and Rensselaer counties, says his party has a prime opportunity to step in and renew its dedication to the middle class. The biggest thing we have going for us is Republican indifference to the working men and women of New York State and their preference for the privileged," he says.

 State Democratic Party Co-Chairman Sullivan says Assembly Democrats have an opportunity to set their own agenda after years of following Cuomo's lead. "We will have a honed-down, more realistic message than [we did in] the halcyon Gov. Cuomo years, but it is a compassionate message," he says. "Yes, we need to downsize government. Yes, we need to save money. But we can t forget about the people."

 Democrats say blocking certain Welfare and Medicaid cuts proposed by the governor and his party also will be part of their message in 1996.

 The Rockefeller Institute's Benjamin says 1996 budget negotiations could indicate where Republicans will pour the most resources in the elections. "That is where the Republicans can try to crack the majority and set up some seats," he says. "The goal may not be winning, but to create an image of vulnerability in the Democratic Party."

 Though he doubts Republicans will take the majority this next election, Benjamin calls 1996 "the second act of a four-act play." If the GOP can turn the Assembly around by the year 2000, it can redraw district lines in its favor after the census. "It would be historic if Republicans took the Assembly," he says. "We don't make these switches too often in New York."
 
 

Caught in the Cross-Hairs
 
 

In an effort to gain a majority in the Assembly. Republicans plan to run candidate in every district in the coming election. But with limited resources, the GOP must choose which races deserve the most attention and resources. Though the election is still months away, Eileen Dugan, chairwoman of the Democratic Assembly Campaign Committee (DACC), says her party is operating under the assumption that Democrats holding seats in Republican districts will be the GOP's primary targets. Her Republican counterpart, John Faso, says his party has not committed itself to challenging any districts in particular. "But we are probably talking about the same districts [as Democrats]," he adds.

 There are many criteria that alone, or in myriad combinations, could add up to a Democratic incumbent's defeat in 1996. Districts vulnerable to GOP takeover according to Republican operatives, generally are areas with members who have served one to two terms; Democrats serving in Republican districts of in districts where the margin of enrolled voters is close; those who won close races by attracting third-party nominations and independents voters; those who had a third-party candidate draw votes from the Democratic and Republican candidates; and those who ran unopposed last election. Added to that mix is strong GOP enthusiasm – or arrogance, from the Democrats' perspective—carried over from 1994, when Republicans took Congress and New York's governorship. 

While it would be fool-hardy for the Democrats to assume that the power of incumbency guarantees job security, it would be equal folly for Republicans to assume Democrats holding seats in GOP districts will fall simply because of the districts' Republican-friendly history.

 Take for example, the case of Democratic Majority Leader Michael Bragman of Onondaga County. State Republican Party Chairman William Powers has stated that Bragman's seat is the number one GOP target. The district is solidly Republican and voted for Pataki in 1994. But voters have elected Bragman to the Assembly eight times, and he has won the past four elections by 2-to-1 margins. Since no GOP candidate has stepped forward for 1996, and no resources have been committed to the campaign, political operatives say Bragman should be safe this year. 

On the other end of the spectrum is second-term Democratic Assemblyman Steve Englebright of Suffolk County, who narrowly beat his Republican-County, who narrowly beat his Republican-Conservative challenger, Kenneth Gaul, by about 1,000 votes in 1994. A third candidate in that race—Barbara Keenan, who ran on the Right-to Life ticket—drew about 1,100 votes. Based on Englebright's pro-choice stance, those votes likely would have gone to Gaul ha Keenan not run, and the Democratic incumbent might have been toppled.

 Based on conversations with Republican and Democratic Assembly members, political scientists and operative, the following Assembly members appear vulnerable--to varying degrees—in 1996: 

• Michael Bragman, District 118, Onondaga County.
• Joan Christensen, District 119, Onondaga County.
• RoAnn Destito, District 116. Oneida County.
• Thomas DiNapoli, District 16, Nassau County.
• Steven Englebright, District 4, Suffolk County.
• Sandra Galef, District 4, Westchester County.
• Jacob Gunther, District 99, Orange and Sullivan counties.
• Paul Harenberg, District 5, Suffolk County. 
• Martin Luster, District 125, Tompkins and Cortland counties.
• William Magee, District 111, Madison, Oneida and Otsego counties.
• Naomi Matusow. District 89, Westchester County.
• Joseph Morelle, District 132, Monroe County.
• William Pamlent. District 150, Chautauqua County.
• Joseph Pillittere. District 138, Niagara County.
• Francis Pordum, District 146, Erie County.
• Joseph Robach. District 134. Monroe County.
• David Sidikman. District 13. Nassau County.
• Robert Sweeney, District 11, Suffolk County.
• Paul Tonko, District 105, Montgomery and Schenectady counties.

• Thomas Kirwan, District 96, Dutchess. Orange and Ulster counties.
• Joel Miller. District 97, Dutchess, Columbia and Greene counties.
• Douglas Prescott, District 96, Queens County.
• John Ravitz, District 73, New York.
• Michael Spano, District 87, Westchester County. 
• Robert Straniere, District 61, Richmond County.
• Sandra Lee Wirth, District 148, Erie County.