As New York's Republicans sweep to power, state Democrats are left pondering the question, "What went wrong?"

Gov. Mario Cuomo is said to have gone to Mass on the morning of election day, to pray not for victory, but for the wisdom to understand the decision voters were in the process of making. He surely needed all the divine wisdom he could garner. His defeat, like that of the Democrat Party nationwide, seemed preordained.

 The Republican victories that swept across the state and the nation on election day carried away Cuomo and a Democratic administration that had governed in Albany securely and comfortably for two decades. Governor-elect George Pataki's victory wasn't a landslide—he won by about 190,000 votes out of more than 5 million cast. It was more like an earthquake, when added to the Republican takeover of the United States Senate and GOP gains in the House of Representatives and statehouses around the country. The national power shift that took place on election day was the most dramatic since the Democrats' big victories in the elections following Watergate. And rather than an act of God, observers see the man-made success of the religious right, the anti-abortion movement and the Republican Party.

 For New York's Republicans, it's time to again become intimate with the workings of state government. Two days after the vote, a GOP delegation led by Michael Finnegan, Pataki's friend, law partner and campaign chairman met with Drew Zambelli, Cuomo's chief of staff. There are a lot of laws on the books in New York, but none of them cover the transition from one administration to another. Zambelli, however, promised it would be smooth. Cuomo would undertake no major policy initiatives in his last weeks in office, and would sign only those contracts necessary to keep government running. Zambelli promised that office space would be made available to the Pataki transition team in New York City and Albany. The incoming administration had been worried about the changeover, but Finnegan said he was "far less concerned" following the meeting.

 There is, of course, the looming controversy over a projected $4 billion budget shortfall that somehow hadn't been mentioned during the campaign and of which the Pataki campaign seemed blissfully, if unaccountably, unaware. But in a victory swing across the state two days after the polling, Pataki assured supporters that promises would be kept. "We are going to cut the income tax in this state by 25 percent over the next four years," he reiterated.

 New York Democrats emerged from the election like the stunned survivors of a natural disaster. As late as 10:00 PM on election night, key Cuomo operatives, relying on the campaign's own polls, still believed that their New York City plurality would bring them victory.

 Ironically, the Democratic Party's get-out-the-vote effort in New York City was probably its best ever. Everything went as planned, with campaign workers flooding friendly election districts. Thanks to the endorsement of New York City Republican Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, support for the governor in white ethnic neighborhoods was up. Cuomo won handily in Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. His only other winning county in the state, however, was Albany.

 Cuomo operatives were so committed to their New York City-based strategy, they ignored pleas from Upstate campaign organizers for resources. Volunteers were in fact brought to the city from outside—more than 10 buses left Albany before sunrise on election day—leaving a diminished volunteer corps elsewhere.

 The Democrats met their goal for New York City votes. They thought a million would do the trick. They got that amount—actually 1,023,493, topping Pataki by 600,000—but it wasn't enough. Cuomo strategists had underestimated how successful Pataki would be elsewhere. Cuomo lost the four-county metropolitan suburban area—Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester and Rockland—by about 130,000 votes out of 1,209,900 cast. And he lost Upstate by 677,500 votes out of about 2,500,000 cast. Overall, Cuomo's share of the Upstate vote was just 32 percent, down from 62 percent in 1986 and 46 percent in 1990. By pursuing a strategy that conceded so much of the state to the Republicans, the Democrats have dug a very deep hole for themselves.

 The tale is told in the turnout. Democrats would have considered it a miracle, perhaps an answer to Cuomo's prayers, if 50 percent of registered voters had turned out in New York City—about 40 percent did. But no one anticipated the numbers that came in from Upstate. In Seneca County, a remarkable 92 percent of eligible voters went to the polls, and voted overwhelmingly for Pataki. Many other Upstate counties had turnouts above 70 percent.

 Democratic strategists appear to have completely missed the scale of the Upstate turnout, and the region gave only 32 percent of its vote to Cuomo.

 It wasn't a total loss for New York Democrats. They elected Carl McCall State Comptroller, and they held their commanding majority in the State Assembly. Even with the loss of six seats, they still outnumber Republicans 94 to 56, making Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver (D-Manhattan) the state's top Dem (See ' Democratic Defender," page 45). But the Republicans consolidated their hold on the State Senate, picking up the open seat being vacated by Albany County Democrat Howard Nolan, increasing their majority to 36 to 25.

 If the Democrats want a model of how to go about the difficult task of regrouping and rebuilding, they need look no further than the example of Republican State Chairman Bill Powers.

 With an intensity terrible to behold— at least from the Democrats' point of view—Powers has, in three short years, built a political machine from a party in disarray. Deeply in debt and unable to nominate a credible candidate for governor four years ago, Powers started building from the grassroots up. Party finances were put in order, and county committees were rebuilt statewide. In 1992, Republicans scored a come-from-behind victory in Sen. Alfonse D'Amato's re-election bid, even as the state was throwing its electoral votes behind Bill Clinton for president. In Powers' first two years as chairman, Republicans won 14 out of 16 county executive races and numerous mayoral contests. The biggest coup, now tarnished in Republican eyes by his endorsement of Cuomo, was Giuliani's victory in the New York City mayor's race. "We learned you can't win at the top until you demonstrate you can win at the bottom," Powers told ESR in January.

 For Republicans, the challenge now is to govern. They promise tax cuts, despite the deficit, but haven't yet said which services and jobs will be cut. The death penalty will likely become law. But with court challenges certain, it will be years before the state puts a New York murderer to death. Pataki's future depends on how well he delivers—and how willing voters are to keep blaming Cuomo for the difficulties that lie ahead.

 The Democrats face a different problem. Barely half of their voters are going to the polls and their base is aging.

 Among various age groups, Cuomo only won a majority of those over 60. Giuliani's support may have helped with some white ethnic and law enforcement groups, but African-Americans, especially the young, are increasingly distant from the political system. The Giuliani endorsement, coming from the man who beat David Dinkins, may have energized Cuomo campaign workers. But it didn't get voters in Harlem or Bedford-Stuyvesant to the polls. Although Cuomo actually increased his percentage of black support—from 84 percent in 1982 to 86 percent this year—overall numbers were down.

 What is the party going to do to reverse the momentum in the suburbs and Upstate? The party needs to address the growing dichotomy between New York City Democrats and those who have been successful elsewhere to reestablish its credibility as a statewide organization. If it doesn't, the Democrats will not only fail to regain the governorship, but may one day lose the Assembly as well. 

Jeff Jones is associate editor of Empire State Report.
 
 

For the first time in the state's history, New York voters elected an African-American to statewide office. Carl McCall's campaign had worried that as Cuomo temporarily took the lead from Pataki, voters would turn to Republican-Conservative Herb London, to restore the state's traditional balance of having a governor and comptroller from different parties. That happened, it seems, but to McCall's advantage, not Cuomo's. London's conservative ideology was too much for too many, while McCall was ultimately able to overcome the negative capaign with a strong base of support from progressives, African-Americans and disgruntled Republicans—Guy Molinari, for example, Pataki's New York city campaign strategy as divisive.
 
 

• Voters were not ready, however, to elect Karen Burstein attorney general. Her liberal credentials were the strongest of all the statewide Democrat candidates, but in the end, a majority of New Yorkers went for Erie County's Dennis Vacco. He promised to turn the attorney general's office into an advocacy SIpit for the death penalty and tougher anti-crime laws.



• Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan handily won a fourth term, but not by the same prodigious margins as in the past. Republican Bernadette Castro fought gamely, winning more than 50 counties. Of the more than 4.5 million votes cast, Moynihan got 50 percent to Castro's 42 percent.



• Sen. Alfonse D'Amato, although not a candidate, had the best election day of all. Not only was he Pataki's most important backer—"You can call me, Al," the governor-elect quipped jubilantly on election night—but with the GOP takeover of the U.S. Senate, he becomes chairman of the Senate Banking Committee and the Senate Republican Campaign Committee.



• Rep. Bill Paxon (R-C. Amherst) left the state Assembly in 1988 when he won Jack Kemp's old seat. Newt Gingrich is getting all the press, but Paxon gets a lot of the credit for the ascendant GOP in the House of Representatives. As leader of the House National Republican Congressional Committee, he helped his colleagues all over the country. Although he says he would be happy to mow the lawn and feed the dog at the executive mansion in Albany should his wife, Rep. Susan Molinari, someday become governor, Paxon is a rising national GOP star. The only clouds on his horizon are term limits, which the Republicans have promised to enact as part of their headline grabbing "Contract With America.



• Rep. Michael McNulty (D-Green Island) bucked the trend. Although his re-election was never in doubt, McNulty increased his margin of victory over his Republican opponent compared with 1992. "I think that is because people see a representative who will vote for a Republican president when he thinks he is right, and will vote against a Democrat president when he thinks he is wrong." the centrist politician explains.



• Independence Fusion Party (IFP) candidate Thomas Golisano wasn't the factor Cuomo hoped and Pataki feared. At a cost of $8 million of his personal fortune, he won about 211,000 votes. He did, however, succeed in guaranteeing the IFP a spot on the ballot for the next four years, moving it ahead; of the Liberal Party and behind the Conservative Party into the fourth place. That means Golisano-backer Ross Perot has a ready-made line waiting for him if he decides on a presidential bid in l996.



• Although the Democrats will continue to dominate the State Assembly, Albany will see some new faces in that chamber when the Legislature reconvenes in January. They include 3 Democrats and eleven Republicans. Democrat winners were: William Scarborough in the 29th district; Felix Ortiz in the 51st district; and Jeffrey Klein in the 80th District. New Republicans taking seats will be: Debra Mazzarelli in the 3rd district; Michael Spano in the 87th district; Willis Stephens in the 91st district; Thomas Kirwan in the 96th distlict; Joel Miller in the 97th district; Patnck Manning in the 99th district; John Guerin in the 101st district; Robert Prentiss in the 107th district; Bernard Mahoney in the 120th district; Jay Dinga in the 123rd; district; and Sandra Lee Wirth in the 148th district.



• There were few changes in the State Senate, where the Republicans remain in firm control. Republican Albany County Executive Michael Hoblock captured the 42nd district seat left open with the retirement of Democrat Howard Nolan. In the 37th district, George Pataki's former seat, Republican Thomas Leibell defeated former Lt. Gov. Alfred Del Bello. In the 27th district, Democrat Catherine Abate takes the vacated seat of Manfred Ohrenstein. At press time, absentee ballots were still being counted in a close race between incumbent Mary Ellen Jones and her challenger, Republican Carol Ellis McManus.



• Republicans picked up at least one additional seat in the state's congressional delegation, maybe two, depending on the outcome of the absentee ballot count taking place in the 26th district. At press time, the race between incumbent Democrat Maurice Hinchey and Republican Bob Moppert was still too close to call. Republican Michael Forbes defeated incumbent Democrat George Hochbrueckner in the 1st district. Other new faces include Republicans Daniel Frisa in the 4th district and Sue Kelly in the 19th district. Frisa had defeated Republican David Levy in the primary, and Kelly won the open seat vacated by the retiring Republican Hamilton Fish. To do so, however, she had to defeat Hamilton Fish, Jr., a Democrat.