The tail is wagging New York's political dog again this year. It's an annual trick performed by the state's third parties as they try to exert their influence over New York's Republicans and Democrats.

They also can cause mischief by running their own candidates, especially when it is someone like Independence Party founder Thomas Golisano, the Rochester businessman who has pledged to invest millions from his personal fortune in his second bid for governor.

For New York Democrats, the third parties could help bring triumph or cause catastrophe in the races for governor, attorney general and U.S. Senate. There's so much competition for these minor party fines that its possible for as many as eight of the I 1 Democratic candidates competing in Democratic primaries in those three races to be on the November ballot.

The Liberal Party has already made its mark on Democratic Party politics by endorsing Lt.Gov. Betsy McCaughey Ross for governors former Manhattan prosecutor Eliot Spitzer for attorney general, and U.S. Rep. Charles Schumer for U.S. Senate.

The Independence Party, which was established four years ago, has added to the Democratic intrigue by setting up an Independence primary between Schumer and New York City Public Advocate Mark Green in the race for U.S. Senate. In the attorney general's race, state Sen. Catherine Abate, a Manhattan Democrat, will fight Independence Party member James Doyle for the nomination.

Want a preview of the Democrats' worst nightmare and the Republicans' dream scenario? McCaughey Ross loses the Democratic primary, but remains on the Liberal line, where she has promised to campaign vigorously. Geraldine Ferraro wins the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate and Green wins the Independence line, leaving them on the ballot with Schumer against Republican U.S. Sen. Alfonse D'Amato. Former Attorney General G. Oliver Koppell wins the Democratic primary in the attorney general's race, but Abate wins the Independence line, so they join Spitzer to face incumbent Dennis Vacco in November.

The Republican incumbents, meanwhile, will be very visible on the ballot, appearing on the Republican and Conservative lines, with D'Amato appearing on a fourth if he wins a primary for the Right to Life line.

"Once the Democratic primary is over, it's going to depend on how active these, candidates are, 11 says pollster Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "But the sip on effect is potentially dramatic' and traumatic for the Democrats." Minor-party politics are at their most fierce every fourth year, when New York elects its governor. That's when the existing minor parties must win 50,000 votes for their gubernatorial candidate in order to the ensuing four years by attracting 50,000 votes for their candidate and carving out a niche in New York's increasingly factionalized political world.

"This is the proving ground for issues," says Miringoff "Whether they tip the balance of any elections this year remains to be seen."

This year, there are five official minor parties-Liberal, .Conservative, Independence, Right to Life, and Freedom. In April, 4.2 percent of the state's electorate was enrolled in these parties-Up from 2.5 percent in 1995.

So far, the most energy for new political parties has come from New York's political left, which finds itself increasingly on the margins of New York's Democratic Party. The Green Party, which backed Ralph Nader for president in 1996, in June nominated for governor 88-year-old radio host Al Lewis, the Actor who played "Grampa" on the 1960s sitcom "The Munsters." The Greens are hoping to capitalize on his celebrity and opposition to the death penalty.

But the Greens are far from unified. One faction has splintered off to form the Marijuana Reform Party, a political group that could give new meaning to the phrase, "smoke-filled room.' The party wants to end what it says is the fruitless "War on Drugs," repeal the so called Rockefeller drug laws, legalize marijuana, and increase funding for needle exchange programs to stem the spread of AIDS. The party uses the marijuana leaf as its symbol on the ballot. "It's an issue that young eople relate to," says gubernatorial candidate Thomas Leighton, a photographer who lives in Manhattan. "They are so turned off by politics, but they can get excited about this issue."

The Marijuana Reform Party may be this year's surprise winner. In last year's race for Manhattan Borough president, Leighton won 32,000 votes on the line-3 percent of the vote and finished ahead of candidates running on the Liberal, Conservative and Right to Life lines. Parties need only about 1 percent of the vote, or 50,000 of an expected 5 million to win ballot status.

New York's Libertarian Party also is trying to win official ballot status. The Libertarians believe in legalizing what it calls "victimless" crimes, such as smoking marijuana and prostitution. For good measure, the party wants to abolish the federal income tax. Long Island Libertarian Chris Garvey is out to win 50,000 votes this year, but it is uncertain whether the party's message will resonate with those looking for a place to cast a 'protest vote in an increasingly crowded gubernatorial field. The Libertarians' 1994 candidate, upstate gadfly and fiscal watchdog Robert Schultz, received less than 15,000 votes.

The success of minor parties this year may be related to developments in the race between Gov. George Pataki and his Democratic opponent. If the election is close, voters tend to lose interest in minor parties and opt for the main combatants so they don't waste their vote. That's what happened in 1994, when public opinion polls had predicted that Golisano would win up to IO percent of the vote.

But if the major party candidates aren't connecting with the electorate, votes for minor party candidates could increase dramatically. "If the message isn't resonating, the minor lines become the place for protests. It's a way to say 'none of the above,"' says consultant Mark Bloom, former chief of staff for the state Democratic Senate minority.

In 1994, that scenario played out for two groups-the Independence and Freedom parties. The Freedom Party, which is not expected to survive this election, was established when Pataki won 54,000 votes on the Tax Cut Now line. He later converted Tax Cut Now to the Freedom Party, but the party never formed a state committee. A Supreme Court judge last year ruled that the Freedom Party could not cross-endorse major party candidates because it lacked that structure, so Republicans won't be able to run under its banner this fall.

The Independence Party won ballot status when Golisano, president of Paychex, which provides payroll services to corporations, spent $6.6 million of his personal fortune to win 217,000 votes for the Ross Perot-affiliated party that wants term limits, campaign finance reform, and initiative and referendum.

Since then, the party set up county organizations throughout the state and has survived three tumultuous years. While the party's independent-minded activists battled for ideological correctness and endorsements for enrolled Independents, seasoned political operatives have fought to cross-endorse major party candidates.

There's also concern by some party members over two-time presidential candidate Lenora Fulani, who enrolled in the Independence Party and wants to bring racial diversity and progressive values to the organization. Fulani in 1988 and 1992 ran for president of the New Alliance Party, which is now part of the national Reform Party-the Perot-back group affiliated with the New York Independence Party.

Fulani won 21 percent of the convention vote for lieutenant governor and intends to collect 15,000 signatures statewide to run a primary against former Independence Party Chairwoman Laureen Oliver.

The winner of the primary will run with Golisano, who again is calling for term limits, campaign finance reform, and initiative and referendum. In addition, he has assailed Pataki for failing to help revive the upstate economy, which Golisano says has been reeling from corporate downsizing.

Theories abound on Golisano's influence on this year's election. With a party apparatus in place, and the experience of a statewide race in 1994, Golisano will certainly be better prepared for the campaign.

Consultant Bloom believes Golisano will cut into Pataki's Republican support upstate and in the suburbs by attracting moderate Republicans. Pollster John Zogby, however, says Golisano in 1994 took twice as many votes away from the Democratic candidate.

In addition, Zogby maintains that the political environment of 1998 is much different than 1994, when voters were angry about the state's stagnant economy and Mario Cuomo's decision to seek a fourth term. While the upstate economy is struggling, Zogby says there's no lightning rod to draw Golisano's attack this year. "This is a party that thrives on anger and resentment, and I don't see it this year," he says. "For those who are unhappy, they may vote Democratic, or not at all."

Still, the Independence Party now numbers about 122,000 voters, or 12 percent of the electorate. "That shows how a movement can start with one person-Perot-and then gain a ballot line," says Gerald Benjamin, interim dean of arts and ' sciences at the State University of New York College at New Paltz. "This growth shows there is energy."

The expansion of the Independence Party has been remarkable. From November 1996 to April 1998, 13 percent of new voters enrolled in the party. Records show that almost as many New Yorkers enrolled in the Independence Party (52,058) as in the Republican Party (55,038). New York's unique election law has encouraged minor parties to flourish. Unlike almost all other states, candidates in New York can run on multiple lines, which has encouraged cross endorsement of major-party candidates by the minor parties.

Those cross-endorsements, however, can come with strings attached. The minor parties can try to insist that the Republicans or Democrats who want their lines take positions on issues they hold dear. The Conservatives this year threatened to make support for a ban on so-called partial-birth abortions a litmus test for their endorsements.

While the Conservatives caved in and endorsed pro-choice Westchester Republicans like state Sen. Nicholas Spano and his brother, Assemblyman Michael Spano, others, like U.S. Rep. Sue Kelly of Westchester, became supporters of the late term abortion ban. Kelly this year will run for the first time with the Conservative endorsement in seeking her third term.

The Right to Life Party keeps strict control over its line, unwillling to make political deals for those politicians who are not ideologically in tune with their desire to ban abortion outright. The Right to Lifers take the issue so seriously that D'Amato finds himself in a primary against Thomas Drolesky, a Long Island activist who argued that D'Amato was too chummy with Pataki, a largely pro-choice governor. The D'Amato-Drolesky match-up comes despite D'Amato strong anti-abortion record in Congress.

Minor parties also can use their power to cross-endorse as an inducement to provide government jobs for members. That's been a party building tool of the Liberals and Conservatives for years.

The state's first modern minor party was the Liberal Party, which was formed in 1944 after the American Labor Party became infiltrated by Communists, and President Franklin Roosevelt encouraged New York labor leaders to create a new party. Since then, every victorious statewide Democrat has run with the Liberal line-something Liberal Party Chairman Ray Harding likes to call "the historical imperative."

Those who won the Liberal endorsement this year--.McCaughey Ross, Spitzer, Schumer and Comptroller H. Carl McCall-echo Harding's line. "No Democrat has won statewide without it," Schumer says. "It's an extra amount of votes and it gives you a boost."

While the party began as a force on the political left, in recent times detractors say it has lost its ideological bearings. Over the past eight years, the party has endorsed Republican New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani over his more liberal opponents, former incumbent David Dinkins and Manhattan Borough President Ruth Messinger, both Democrats. Harding sent another mixed message this spring when the Liberal Party nominated McCaughey Ross, PataUs estranged lieutenant governor, who four years ago ran with Pataki on the Conservative line. Harding's support for Giuliani has burned bridges. In the contest for the attorney generars nomination, both Koppell and Abate were considering seeking the nomination. But Koppell backed out two days before the convention, saying he woulddt commit to running an active campaign on the Liberal line if he lost the Democratic primary. Abate pulled out two hours before the vote, saying she wanted Dinkins' endorsement. But he refiised to back her if she was running with the party that supported Giuliani. "I made a political choice," she says. "It was a choice between the Liberals and Dinkins, and I wanted Dinkins' support."

That left the nomination to Spitzer, the wealthy Manhattanite who had most support among Democrats at the May convention.

The Democrats seeking the gubematorial nomination, however, didn't harbor such reservations. McCaughey Ross was joined by New York City Council Speaker Peter Vallone, Brooklyn District Attorney Charles Hynes and former state Transportation Commissioner Jim Larocca in seeking the line.

Harding, who wants his party to survive, needs a candidate to campaign actively enough to win 50,000 votes, even if that candidate loses the Democratic primary. Only McCaughey Ross was willing to give him that pledge. "Having the Liberal Party line makes me the favorite," she says. But taking the Liberal line has set up a dangerous situation for the Democratic Party. If Liberal Party-endorsed candidates lose the Democratic primary and remain on the line, they could siphon votes from the victorious Democratic candidate. In the governor's race, that would mean that McCaughey Ross would split the anti-Pataki vote with the Democratic nominee. "If [McCaughey Ross] wins the Democratic line, having the Liberal line in November will mean a lot to her," says former Lt.Gov. Alfred DelBello, a Democrat who ran on the Liberal line in 1982. "But if she doesn't win, it's going to signal a problem to the Democrat who wins."

Many aren't ready to sign the Liberal Party's death warrant, saying that liberalism is still alive in New York. A May poll of 600 Democrats by Manhattanville College found that 37 percent of Democrats would be more inclined to vote for a candidate if they were also endorsed by the Liberal Party. "A lot of New Yorkers still believe there is a liberal behind the Liberal label," DelBello says.

Meanwhile, Judith Hope, chairwoman of the New York State Democratic Committee, maintains that the Liberal Party won't be a factor this year, regardless of who wins the Democratic primary. The Liberals won't win 50,000 votes this year, she says. "They are on the way out," Hope predicts. "Their days are numbered. Its' bye-bye Liberal Party, and that's a very good thing."